The latest product of the Philippine rumor mill has President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo declaring martial law to put an end to the crap that's been flying since her husband and panganay (eldest born) were accused of accepting payoffs from jueteng operators.
Juetenggate (as this scandal was subsequently named, in reference to Watergate, the scandal that forced then US President Richard Nixon to resign) was quickly followed by Gloriagate, the scandal involving wiretapped conversations between (depending on whom you believe) someone who sounds like the president, and (again, depending on whom you believe) Commission on Elections Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano. The conversations supposedly prove that GMA cheated in the last presidential election.
Today, newspapers reported that guns supposedly meant to help destabilization efforts were intercepted by customs agents. Now the Administration is saying that all these events are evidence of a last-ditch effort by the opposition to oust GMA.
GMA has repeatedly said that as the democratically-elected president of this screwed republic, there is no way she will step down. In light of the unrelenting attacks against her person, it isn't surprising that there are rumors that the president is considering declaring martial law to put an end to this crisis of sorts.
Section 18, Article VII of the Philippine Constitution states:
The President shall be the Commander-in-Chief of all armed forces of the Philippines and whenever it becomes necessary, he may call out such armed forces to prevent or suppress lawless violence, invasion or rebellion. In case of invasion or rebellion, when the public safety requires it, he may, for a period not exceeding sixty days, suspend the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus or place the Philippines or any part thereof under martial law. Within forty-eight hours from the proclamation of martial law or the suspension of the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus, the President shall submit a report in person or in writing to the Congress. The Congress, voting jointly, by a vote of at least a majority of all its Members in regular or special session, may revoke such proclamation or suspension, which revocation shall not be set aside by the President. Upon the initiative of the President, the Congress may, in the same manner, extend such proclamation or suspension for a period to be determined by the Congress, if the invasion or rebellion shall persist and public safety requires it. (emphasis mine)
The only way GMA can justify declaring martial law given the conditions outlined above is to simply say that "the public safety requires it."
So does it?
Let's see.
Allegations of corruption are nothing new to the First Family. So are accusations of massive cheating in the last election. The difference between these new scandals and the ones that came before it is the (supposed) existence of proof. In Jueteggate, witnesses under oath swore that First Gentleman Mike Arroyo and Congressman Mikey Arroyo accepted payoffs from jueteng operators. In Gloriagate, taped conversations reportedly prove beyond doubt that GMA cheated FPJ. It is the weight of the evidence, plus the relentlessness of the opposition in exploiting these scandals, that have made many people-- businessmen, in particular-- nervous.
For many, GMA included, the possibility of People Power IV is very real, and very scary. Loyalty checks among the military are being made left and right, to ensure that the military and the PNP don't do to GMA what they did to Erap in 2001. Most people-- the military included-- probably think kicking out GMA isn't necessary... yet. Yes, the peso is falling. Yes, the stockmarket is performing poorly. Yes, foreign businessmen are getting turned off. But political bickering is just business as usual in this country.
However, an argument could be made that allowing the attacks against GMA to continue unabated could worsen the socioeconomic climate and lead to a situation that would require the implementation of measures to protect the interests of Filipinos-- i.e., martial law.
Will it ever come to that, given the events of the past few weeks? I don't think so. The president may be wading in shit, but as long as people believe that the Administration is stable enough to survive these scandals (it is, even if they themselves doubt it), things will go back to normal in no time.
Flirting with the idea of declaring martial law is a dangerous business. Declaring martial law would be interpreted as GMA admitting that things are downright shitty. GMA would have to say, "we're in deep trouble, and the only way to address this is through drastic measures like martial law." It won't serve to reassure the public. On the contrary, declaring martial law would only fan the flames of panic, bring back painful memories, and provide the opposition with more ammunition by which to attack the president's already questionable credibility.
Juetenggate (as this scandal was subsequently named, in reference to Watergate, the scandal that forced then US President Richard Nixon to resign) was quickly followed by Gloriagate, the scandal involving wiretapped conversations between (depending on whom you believe) someone who sounds like the president, and (again, depending on whom you believe) Commission on Elections Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano. The conversations supposedly prove that GMA cheated in the last presidential election.
Today, newspapers reported that guns supposedly meant to help destabilization efforts were intercepted by customs agents. Now the Administration is saying that all these events are evidence of a last-ditch effort by the opposition to oust GMA.
GMA has repeatedly said that as the democratically-elected president of this screwed republic, there is no way she will step down. In light of the unrelenting attacks against her person, it isn't surprising that there are rumors that the president is considering declaring martial law to put an end to this crisis of sorts.
Section 18, Article VII of the Philippine Constitution states:
The President shall be the Commander-in-Chief of all armed forces of the Philippines and whenever it becomes necessary, he may call out such armed forces to prevent or suppress lawless violence, invasion or rebellion. In case of invasion or rebellion, when the public safety requires it, he may, for a period not exceeding sixty days, suspend the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus or place the Philippines or any part thereof under martial law. Within forty-eight hours from the proclamation of martial law or the suspension of the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus, the President shall submit a report in person or in writing to the Congress. The Congress, voting jointly, by a vote of at least a majority of all its Members in regular or special session, may revoke such proclamation or suspension, which revocation shall not be set aside by the President. Upon the initiative of the President, the Congress may, in the same manner, extend such proclamation or suspension for a period to be determined by the Congress, if the invasion or rebellion shall persist and public safety requires it. (emphasis mine)
The only way GMA can justify declaring martial law given the conditions outlined above is to simply say that "the public safety requires it."
So does it?
Let's see.
Allegations of corruption are nothing new to the First Family. So are accusations of massive cheating in the last election. The difference between these new scandals and the ones that came before it is the (supposed) existence of proof. In Jueteggate, witnesses under oath swore that First Gentleman Mike Arroyo and Congressman Mikey Arroyo accepted payoffs from jueteng operators. In Gloriagate, taped conversations reportedly prove beyond doubt that GMA cheated FPJ. It is the weight of the evidence, plus the relentlessness of the opposition in exploiting these scandals, that have made many people-- businessmen, in particular-- nervous.
For many, GMA included, the possibility of People Power IV is very real, and very scary. Loyalty checks among the military are being made left and right, to ensure that the military and the PNP don't do to GMA what they did to Erap in 2001. Most people-- the military included-- probably think kicking out GMA isn't necessary... yet. Yes, the peso is falling. Yes, the stockmarket is performing poorly. Yes, foreign businessmen are getting turned off. But political bickering is just business as usual in this country.
However, an argument could be made that allowing the attacks against GMA to continue unabated could worsen the socioeconomic climate and lead to a situation that would require the implementation of measures to protect the interests of Filipinos-- i.e., martial law.
Will it ever come to that, given the events of the past few weeks? I don't think so. The president may be wading in shit, but as long as people believe that the Administration is stable enough to survive these scandals (it is, even if they themselves doubt it), things will go back to normal in no time.
Flirting with the idea of declaring martial law is a dangerous business. Declaring martial law would be interpreted as GMA admitting that things are downright shitty. GMA would have to say, "we're in deep trouble, and the only way to address this is through drastic measures like martial law." It won't serve to reassure the public. On the contrary, declaring martial law would only fan the flames of panic, bring back painful memories, and provide the opposition with more ammunition by which to attack the president's already questionable credibility.
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